Expected Value (EV) (EV)

Also known as: expected value, EV

The probability-weighted average outcome of a decision — the chips or dollars a line wins on average across all possible results.

Expected value is the long-run average of a decision, the foundation of every other number on this list:

\[ \text{EV} = \sum_i p_i \cdot v_i \]

where each outcome \(i\) has probability \(p_i\) and chip (or money) result \(v_i\). You pick the line with the highest EV. For a bet or raise, EV combines fold equity (villain folds, you win the pot now) with showdown equity (villain continues, you win at the rate your hand realises).

The critical tournament distinction: chips are not money. Chip EV (cEV) maximises stack size; Dollar EV ($EV) runs cEV through ICM (Malmuth-Harville) to value the actual prize equity. Near the bubble the two diverge sharply — a chip-EV-positive shove can be dollar-EV-negative because of the risk premium. Always be explicit about which EV you're computing.