Breakeven Percentage

Also known as: breakeven percentage, break-even percent, bluff breakeven, auto-profit threshold

The fold frequency a pure bluff needs to break even, equal to bet divided by pot-plus-bet.

The breakeven percentage is the fold frequency at which a pure bluff (zero equity when called) is exactly break-even:

\[ \text{breakeven} = \frac{b}{p+b} \]

where \(b\) is your bet and \(p\) the pot before it. Bet more often than this and the bluff prints; less, and it loses. This is the same quantity as Alpha — the price you lay yourself — and it's the fold equity threshold a bluff must clear. Its complement, \(\tfrac{p}{p+b}\), is the opponent's Minimum Defense Frequency: defend less than that and you can bluff any two cards profitably.

Larger sizings demand more folds: a pot-sized bet needs 50%, an overbet needs more, an underbet needs fewer. For semi-bluffs with live equity, subtract your when-called equity from the required folds — fewer folds are needed because the showdown branch wins some of the time. In tournaments, an opponent's ICM risk premium pushes their real fold frequency above the chip-EV MDF, lowering your effective breakeven.