Downswing

Also known as: losing streak, dry spell

An extended losing stretch driven by negative variance, not necessarily by bad play.

A downswing is a prolonged period where you lose money or run below expectation. The hard part is that a normal downswing and a genuine skill problem look identical from inside one — both feel awful.

The statistics are sobering. Because results spread as \(\sigma\sqrt{N}\) (see variance), a clear winner will have multi-buy-in downswings as a matter of course. A 5 bb/100 cash winner with \(\sigma=100\) bb/100 routinely sees 15–25 buy-in downswings over a career; MTT players regularly endure 100+ tournament cashless stretches while still being long-term profitable.

What to actually do:

• Separate variance from leaks. Review hands honestly — is your decision quality holding, or is tilt creeping in? A Hand Tracker and a Bankroll Tracker turn feelings into data.
• Respect your move-down triggers. If the roll drops below your buy-in threshold, drop stakes — that's the whole point of bankroll rules.
• Don't increase risk to "get it back." Chasing converts a variance problem into a risk-of-ruin problem.

The correct response to a downswing is almost always: keep playing your A-game at an appropriate stake, or stop and reset — never to gamble bigger.