Bubble

Also known as: money bubble, on the bubble

The stage just before the money, when one more elimination puts the remaining players into the paid spots.

The bubble is the last unpaid finishing position. With 28 players paid, the 29th-place finisher is the bubble; everyone is one bust-away from a min-cash. This is where ICM pressure peaks, because the marginal chip is worth the least and busting costs your entire equity.

Strategically, the bubble splits the field. Big stacks apply maximum pressure — they risk little real money and can attack medium stacks who cannot call without a premium. Short stacks that are not the shortest can fold into the money. The shortest stack and any covered medium stack must tighten dramatically, often folding hands that are clear calls in a chip-EV vacuum.

The size of the correct adjustment is captured by bubble factor and risk premium. In a satellite, where all seats pay equally, bubble play is even more extreme — once you have a locked stack you fold almost everything.